Straight from Tom Clancy

I'm a rabid Tom Clancy fan...have read and re-read all of his solo-authored books...because I think he presents a credible simulation of the cause-and-effect of world events. My first reaction on hearing the breaking news about the first plane crashing into the World Trade Center on 9-11 was to wonder whether another one was on the way to Washington (a la Clancy’s Debt of Honor.)

That’s why some speculation posted by David Conway on Civitas has struck a chord with me.

Conway postulates the over-the-top Muslin outrage worldwide over the Danish-published Allah and Mohammed cartoons, which were published in September, is being choreographed by the Iranians. Their motivation: Iran is due before the United Nations Security Council to face possible sanctions over their dogged determination to process uranium. For the gullible, energy-rich Iran claims it needs the refined uranium for nuclear power plants to provide electricity. A more realistic view is that Iran is refining the material for use in nuclear weapons.

There is enough sense left in the world that most other countries see Iran’s true aims, and have supported bringing the country before the UN security council. On the council, Iran knows it can count on the ever-opportunistic Russia and China for support...but who else can it turn to?

From Civitas:

But who wanted or caused the heat to become so turned up and why at that this particular moment?

The clue to the answers to this second question lies in a second event almost certain to occur to today, if it has not already happened by the time this blog gets posted. This is the likely decision today in Vienna by the International Atomic Energy Agency to report Iran to the UN Security Council for continuing with its programme of nuclear research. If that decision should occur, when the UN Security Council gets round to considering what form of sanctions to impose on Iran, guess to whom chairmanship of the Council will have passed? You’ve got it... plucky little Denmark.

Suddenly, the pieces fall into shape. The rumpus suddenly escalated, complete with fabricated offensive cartoons, to so enflame Muslim opinion that Denmark could be intimidated directly through a threatened Muslim boycott of its goods, or indirectly by the EU fearful of a wider boycott, into voting in favour of Iran.

It’s classic Tom Clancy. Iran conducts a proxy war against Denmark in hopes of intimidating the next chairman of the security council, trying to ensure that its race for nuclear weapons reaches fruition. The tactic is nothing new; Iran has been conducting a shadowy proxy war against the United States for years – supporting efforts by Muslim fundamentalists worldwide and, more recently, Iraqi insurgents, to harry American efforts.

I think, in the case of Iran and the entire Middle East, we continually make the mistake of equating technological and cultural stagnation with intelligence. Sure, the Iranians may not be the Silicon Valley of the world, but that doesn’t mean they can’t play a clever game of chess. And chess on the international level involves subterfuge, feints and distraction – something at which the Iranians have proven themselves adept.

I hope for our sakes we have the equivalent of Clancy’s Jack Ryan and John Clark on hand to guide us through the coming storm and thwart Iran’s ambitions.